Here is something motivational content rarely talks about: persistence has a mathematical side.
We are often told to keep going, believe in ourselves and never give up. But beyond determination, there is a practical reason to keep trying.
The more opportunities you give yourself to succeed, the less your future depends on the outcome of any single attempt.
Let’s do a simple probability exercise: If you have a 10% chance of succeeding on any one attempt, your probability of succeeding at least once across five independent attempts is approximately 41%. Across ten attempts, it rises to 65%.
The odds of each individual attempt haven’t changed. What has changed is the number of opportunities you’ve given yourself. Of course, real life is more complicated, but the principle is worth thinking about.
You approach one or two potential customers. They say no. You conclude there is no market for your product. You apply for a job. When you don’t get it. You may think you’re not qualified. You pitch an investor. When they decline. Suddenly, you’re questioning the entire business. The truth is one rejection is a very small sample from which to draw conclusions about your future.
Sometimes, you just haven’t knocked on enough doors.
Before J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone was published (I wrote about this in the Invisible Season), twelve publishers had rejected the manuscript. Bloomsbury eventually said yes.
Imagine if she had stopped at the third rejection.
We know the ending now, so persistence looks like an obvious choice. But Rowling didn’t know that the next publisher would say yes.
And that is the uncomfortable thing about persistence. You often have to keep trying without knowing whether the next attempt will change anything.
Not every rejection means the idea is bad. Sometimes it’s the wrong audience, the wrong timing or simply the wrong person making the decision.
But trying again should also make you wiser.
A 2010 study published in the Journal of Financial Economics found that entrepreneurs who had previously built a successful venture had a 30% chance of succeeding in their next one, compared with 21% for first-time entrepreneurs. The study examined venture-capital-backed businesses and measured success by whether a company went public.
That doesn’t mean every attempt makes you more successful. But experience can improve how we recognise opportunities, assess risks and make decisions.
Your tenth pitch shouldn’t necessarily be identical to your first. By then, you should have learnt something about your audience, your offer or your approach.
Persistence without learning can become repetition. Persistence with learning can become progress.
And sometimes, the evidence will tell you to change direction or stop altogether. There is wisdom in knowing when an idea is no longer worth pursuing.
Don’t turn one rejection into a lifetime verdict.
We should not treat a disappointing outcome as a final assessment of our ability, when it may only tell us what happened in one particular situation. One customer said no. One application was unsuccessful. One idea didn’t work.
What have you learnt? What could you do differently? And have you tried enough to make an informed decision?
Because there is a difference between something that has failed after a fair test and something that has barely been given a chance.
Rejection is not always a verdict. Sometimes, it is data.
So before you conclude that something cannot work, ask yourself:
Have I really tested this idea?
Have I learnt anything from the attempts I’ve made?
And most importantly, have I given it enough of a chance to know?
Because sometimes, what looks like failure is simply a conclusion reached too early.
Until the next note,
– STB
Notes with STB | A content series exploring mindset, money and business.
Research reference: Gompers, P., Kovner, A., Lerner, J. & Scharfstein, D. (2010). Performance Persistence in Entrepreneurship. Journal of Financial Economics, 96(1), 18–32.
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